Rafeef Asleem

 Gaza-The latest regional escalation has stalled progress on the Gaza ceasefire agreement, as international attention shifts and tensions rise. While political and military interests intersect across the region, the Gaza Strip remains stuck in a state of stagnation, with no clear signs of an imminent move to the second phase of the agreement.

Just as the transition to the second phase of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza was expected, regional developments have further complicated the situation, amid military escalation and declining international focus on humanitarian and political issues related to the Strip.

With the outbreak of the recent military confrontation between Iran and Israel, Gaza has entered a new phase of complexity on both the security and economic levels, increasing uncertainty over the possibility of moving forward with the second phase of the ceasefire agreement signed in October 2024.

This comes as the United States is preoccupied with the repercussions of the attack, shifting Gaza from a humanitarian and security issue into part of a broader regional equation involving calculations of influence and deterrence. This raises a key question: Will Israeli authorities actually backtrack on their commitments under the agreement?

In response, political analyst Jivara Taha states that the Iran–Israel escalation is directly linked to several fronts in the region, from Lebanon and Syria to Gaza. Although Gaza is not as active a front as Lebanon, Iran views it as a base for resistance, making it directly affected by regional developments.

A Regional Political Card

She explained that Gaza, once treated primarily as a humanitarian issue, has now become a regional political card shaped by the interests of multiple countries. Iran sees it as a symbol of resistance, the United States views it as an area that must be stabilized to ensure the success of proposed agreements, while Arab countries consider it a line of defense for the Palestinian cause, focusing on humanitarian support and the opening of the Rafah crossing.

Taha believes that the Palestinian people are the biggest losers, as they continue to pay the price of a devastating two-year war, while Gaza is used as a political arena for regional and international power struggles. She noted that Israeli authorities are currently working to expand their influence in the Strip by intensifying military operations along the “yellow line” and imposing political control.

She also stressed that the ongoing conflicts and attempts to assert control over Gaza are linked to its rich fishing resources and natural gas reserves, making it a focal point for regional and international powers. Therefore, it is not surprising that major and Arab states alike treat Gaza as a strategically and economically valuable area, with each seeking to advance its own interests. Both allies and adversaries view Gaza as resource-rich territory.

She pointed out that the United States, which had been pushing for a settlement since the beginning of the war, is now preoccupied with broader Middle East developments, considering the de-escalation in Gaza its most notable achievement so far, despite unresolved internal issues.

Withdrawing from the Agreement to Serve Interests

She suggested that moving to the second phase of the ceasefire agreement will not be easy, given U.S. preoccupation and the widening scope of regional conflict. While the Iran–Israel confrontation may not last long, it is expected to leave negative consequences for Gaza and the region as a whole.

She added that the current confrontation is not a passing event, but a development that could open new fronts in other countries, further complicating the situation and delaying any practical steps toward implementing the agreement. Even if the escalation eventually ends, it will leave Gaza and the region among the biggest losers.

She explained that discussions about a technocratic government, Gaza’s political future, humanitarian and relief issues, and reconstruction efforts have completely halted since the escalation began. Stagnation is likely to persist, and the city may remain devastated for years.

At the current stage, Taha expects internal arrangements among certain factions and political figures, while the Palestinian public remains occupied with secondary issues. Meanwhile, the political and security files will remain closed. She concluded that Israeli authorities will likely evade the agreement in ways that serve their interests, continuing targeted killings, controlling border crossings, and carefully managing the media narrative.