Parşin Dolatyar

News Center — The current war between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other is not merely a military confrontation but has transformed into a geopolitical crisis in the energy market and the global economy.

On the tenth day of the military escalation, global financial markets witnessed severe turmoil; oil prices jumped by more than 25%, approaching $120 per barrel, while European stock markets fell to their lowest levels in months. The disruption of energy transport routes, particularly concerns about the security of oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz, has heightened fears of a shock to global supplies, at a time when bond yields in Europe and Britain have risen, reflecting the return of inflationary concerns in Western economies.

Under these circumstances, the mere possibility of restricting energy transport movements in the Gulf was enough to drive investors toward safe-haven assets and place global markets on the brink of a new energy crisis.

In the classical analysis of the structure of power in the international system, states, armies, and economic capabilities are usually considered the most important sources of power. However, the two historical experiences of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries show that alongside these factors, there is another type of structural power, represented by control over the vital corridors of the global economy.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most prominent examples of this phenomenon; this narrow maritime passage is not only a transit route for a huge portion of the world's energy but also a point where geography, economics, and global politics intersect intensely.

From this perspective, one can speak of a theoretical framework in international relations that could be called the "Theory of Power Corridors." According to this conception, a world where energy and trade chains are concentrated in limited geographical routes makes control over these points, or even the threat of disrupting their operation, a form of geopolitical power; a power that may sometimes exceed the impact of direct military force.

In the logic of this theory, power is embodied not only within the scope of states or their military capabilities but also accumulates in the geographical nodes of the global economy. The Strait of Hormuz is a classic example of such nodes; it is a narrow passage through which a large part of the world's oil and gas passes. This unprecedented concentration of energy flows has made the stability of the global economy highly dependent on the security of this passage.

In such a structure, even limited disruption can create a cascade of economic repercussions on a global scale, because the global energy system is organized in a way that makes alternative routes limited and costly. Hence, the importance of the Strait of Hormuz is not only related to its geographical location but also to its role in the architecture of global energy dependence.

There is no doubt that the geopolitical importance of the Strait of Hormuz is the product of a long historical path. With the formation of the oil economy in the Middle East and the development of massive oil fields in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, the Gulf became one of the most important energy production centers in the world.

After World War II and with the rapid growth of industrial countries' economies, the dependence of Western nations on Middle Eastern oil increased significantly. At that stage, oil tankers departing from Gulf ports were forced to cross the Strait of Hormuz to reach global markets.

Thus, a simple geographical route gradually transformed into a vital artery of the global economy. This historical moment can be considered the point at which geography was converted into geopolitical capital; with the formation of this vital artery, the issue of securing it became one of the most prominent concerns of global powers. The first serious test of this issue emerged in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war.

At that time, mutual attacks on oil tankers, later known as the "Tanker War," threatened the security of energy routes. Hundreds of commercial vessels were targeted, putting the flow of global energy in the danger zone.

The response of Western powers to this crisis came through direct intervention to protect maritime navigation routes. This intervention demonstrated that energy security for major powers is not merely an economic issue but a fundamental part of the global security structure.

After the war ended, the American military presence in the Gulf became entrenched, and the stationing of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain became one of the cornerstones of Washington's strategy to ensure the free flow of energy. Thus, the Strait of Hormuz gradually turned into one of the most militarized points in the world; where warships, oil tankers, and equations of global power move within an extremely narrow geographical scope.

In this context, Iran, for its part, sought to turn its geographical location into a deterrent tool. With the escalation of economic sanctions, Tehran has repeatedly declared that it is capable of disrupting the passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz if it is prevented from exporting its oil. This threat comes within the Iranian security doctrine as part of an asymmetric deterrence strategy. For this reason, the Strait of Hormuz in regional geopolitical calculations is more than just a navigational passage; it is a tool for geopolitical bargaining.

War and Cascading Shocks in the Global Economy

As the direct war between Iran and the United States and Israel enters its second week, global energy and financial markets face severe disruption. On the tenth day of the war, the oil price rose by more than 25%, with global Brent crude at one point reaching around $119.50 per barrel, its highest level since mid-2022.

At the same time, European financial markets came under significant pressure, as the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 index declined for the third consecutive day, reaching its lowest level in over two months.

Banks and technology companies recorded the largest losses, while the aviation sector saw a sharp decline in shares of companies such as Lufthansa and Air France-KLM due to rising fuel costs and escalating geopolitical uncertainty.

The rise in oil prices is not merely a shift in the energy market; it can quickly transmit to other sectors of the global economy. Higher energy prices lead to increased transportation costs, higher industrial production costs, and rising food prices. As a result, many of the world's economies face the risk of resurgent inflation. In this context, reports indicated that G7 finance ministers are considering the possibility of releasing part of the strategic petroleum reserves to calm markets.

Furthermore, rising maritime insurance costs, disrupted transport chains, and increased fuel prices could affect a wide range of industries from aviation to agriculture and car manufacturing. Energy sector officials have repeatedly warned of these risks, including the CEO of Saudi Aramco, who affirmed that continued navigation disruption within this maritime passage could have catastrophic consequences for global oil markets.

These warnings show that a crisis in a narrow maritime passage can turn into a systemic dysfunction in the global economy. In other words, what makes the Strait of Hormuz a global issue is not only the volume of energy passing through it but the unprecedented concentration of geopolitical power in a single geographical point.

Within the framework of the "Theory of Power Corridors," such points transform into centers where global economy, politics, and security intersect. From this perspective, the Strait of Hormuz represents a model of a world where geography is still capable of determining the fate of economy and politics. In a world still dependent on fossil fuels, controlling energy corridors can influence the balance of power as much as armies can.

For this reason, the future of this maritime passage is not just a regional issue but part of a broader equation concerning the global order; an order where energy remains one of the most important tools of power and political pressure.